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Transport

Demand for?transport services grows strongly, but gains in energy efficiency limit?increases in energy used
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Rapid gains in energy efficiency limit increases in energy used in transportation despite rapid growth in the demand for transport services.

Final energy?consumption in transport: by region
Final energy consumption in transport: consumption by region
Final energy?consumption in transport: growth by mode
Final energy consumption in transport: growth by mode

In the ET scenario, the demand for transport services almost doubles, but quickening gains in engine efficiency mean that energy consumed increases by only 20%.

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The growth in energy used in transport is concentrated within developing Asia, which accounts for 80% of the net increase, as rising prosperity increases demand for both the quantity and quality of transport services.

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The increase in energy consumed across different modes of transport is affected by the pace of efficiency improvements. The efficiency of the average internal-combustion-engine car improves by nearly 50% in the major global car markets; truck efficiency also records substantial gains. As a result, the rate of demand growth in the road sector decelerates significantly, leading the slow-down in overall transport demand growth.

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In contrast, the scope for further efficiency gains within aviation and marine is more modest. These modes account for nearly half of the increase in energy used in transport in the final decade of the Outlook, even though their combined share of total transport demand today is only 20%.

Transport demand continues to be dominated by oil, despite increasing use of natural gas, electricity and biofuels

The transport sector continues to be dominated by oil, despite increasing penetration of alternative fuels, particularly electricity and natural gas.

Final energy?consumption in transport: consumption by fuel
Final energy consumption in transport: consumption by fuel
Other includes?biofuels, coal and hydrogen
Final energy?consumption in transport: growth by fuel and mode, 2017-2040
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In the ET scenario, the share of oil within transport declines to around 85% by 2040, down from 94% currently. Natural gas, electricity and biofuels together account for more than half of the increase in energy used in transport, with each providing around 5% of transport demand by 2040.

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Oil used in transport increases 4 Mb/d (220 Mtoe), with the majority of that demand stemming from increased use in aviation and marine, rather than road transportation.

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Non-oil energy sources account for over half of the increase of energy used in transport

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Electricity and natural gas in transportation increase by broadly similar volumes (120 Mtoe), with the increased use of electricity concentrated in passenger cars and light trucks; and the rising demand for natural gas largely within long-distance road haulage and marine.

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The use of biofuels increases by just under 2 Mb/d (60 Mtoe), predominantly in road transport, with some increase in aviation.

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An alternative ‘Lower carbon transport’ scenario considers the scope for greater fuel switching, as well as faster efficiency gains.

Electric vehicles continue to grow rapidly, with their impact amplified by growth of autonomous vehicles

Electric vehicles continue to grow rapidly, concentrated within passenger cars, light-duty trucks (LDTs) and public buses.

Passenger?car parc and vehicle km electrified
Passenger car parc and vehicle km electrified
Change?in the share of road passenger km
Change in the share of road passenger km
* Includes?all forms of taxis

In the ET scenario, the number of electric vehicles reaches around 350 million by 2040, of which around 300 million are passenger cars. This is equivalent to around 15% of all cars and 12% of LDTs.

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The use of electric passenger cars is amplified by the emergence of autonomous cars (AVs) from the early 2020s offering low-cost, shared-mobility services, predominantly in electric cars. As a result, around 25% of passenger vehicle km are powered by electricity in 2040, even though only 15% of cars are electrified.


Global prosperity and autonomous vehicles risk increasing congestion

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The rise in global prosperity leads to a shift away from high-occupancy road transport (buses) to private vehicles, reducing the global load factor for road vehicles (i.e. the average number of passengers per vehicle). This trend is compounded in the second half of the Outlook by the falling cost of road travel associated with the growing availability of low-cost shared mobility services using autonomous vehicles.

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The fall in the global load factor for road vehicles and associated increase in road congestion is a key challenge facing the global transport system over the Outlook.

Alternative scenario – lower carbon transport

A lower carbon transport sector by increasing?efficiency, alternative fuels and shared mobility

Efficiency?improvements 2017-2040 (%)
Efficiency improvements 2017-2040 (%)
Electrification?of vehicle km by 2040 (%)
Electrification of vehicle km by 2040 (%)
Share?of non-oil road transport by 2040 (%)
Share of non-oil road transport by 2040 (%)
Typical?car-lifespan (years)
Typical car-lifespan (years)

Despite significant increases in vehicle efficiency and electrification, carbon emissions in the transport sector in the ET scenario continue to increase.

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The alternative ‘Lower-carbon transport’ (LCT) scenario includes a large number of measures designed to reduce carbon emissions in the transport sector, including:

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  • further tightening in vehicle efficiency standards, such that the average internal-combustion-engine car in 2040 is around 55% more efficient than today; the pace of efficiency gains in new trucks and ships also increases;
  • increased electrification, including bans on sales of all internal-combustion engine cars in much of the OECD and China by 2040?or soon after; half of global sales of new trucks and buses are electric or hydrogen-powered by 2040;
  • increased penetration of shared mobility services, including more consumer-friendly ‘mini-buses’, increasing the share of passenger kilometres which are electrified and helping to arrest some of the decline in the global road ‘load factor’;
  • increasing the share of biofuels in road transport in the OECD and China to 20% by 2040 (and to 10% in the rest of the world); similarly in aviation, increase the share of biofuels in jet fuel to 20% in the developed world by 2040;
  • car scrappage schemes which reduce the typical lifespan of a car from around 12 years to 8 years by 2040, improving the average efficiency of the global car parc and the pace of electrification.

Increasing?efficiency, rather than fuel switching, is the main factor causing transport?carbon emissions to fall from current levels

Transport?emissions in ET and LCT scenarios in 2040
Transport emissions in ET and LCT scenarios in 2040
Road?emissions in LCT scenario, 2017-2040
Road emissions in LCT scenario, 2017-2040

As a result of these measures, CO2 emissions from transport in the LCT scenario fall by 2% (0.2 Gt) from 2017 levels, compared with an increase of 13% (1.1 Gt) in the ET scenario.

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Compared with the ET scenario, the majority of the reduction in emissions stems from road transport, particularly via fuel switching. This reflects the importance of road transportation relative to marine and aviation; and the greater scope to electrify different aspects of road use. Increased electrification accounts for around a half of the reduction in emissions relative to the ET scenario by 2040.

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Compared to the current levels of emissions, improving levels of efficiency within transport mean that the rapid growth in the demand for transport services over the Outlook can be met with almost no increase in energy consumption. The most important driver of these efficiency gains is the significant tightening in vehicle emissions standards, much of which is already reflected in the ET Scenario. The use of car scrappage schemes also helps to improve average car efficiency.

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The contribution of fuel switching in reducing emissions from current levels is less significant. Increasing electrification accounts for around half of the gains from fuel switching, with the majority of the remainder reflecting greater use of biofuels, which increase by around 4 Mb/d to 6 Mb/d by 2040.

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