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Global insight – Rapid transition

Global energy consumption grows by around one-fifth and CO2 emissions half of current levels. Renewables amount to almost one-third of total primary energy in 2040

Highlights

0.8% increase

Annual growth in global energy consumption

29%

Share of renewables in primary energy consumption

18%

Proportion of CO2 emissions from power sector in 2040


Renewables increase eightfold over the Outlook, offsetting the decline in coal and oil consumption.
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The consumption of natural gas increases around 40% from 2017, becoming the second largest energy source.
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Power generation increases around 60% due to an accelerated process of electrification.

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Projections

  • In the Rapid transition scenario world energy demand increases by one-fifth from 2017 to 2040, compared with an increase of one-third in the Evolving transition scenario.
  • Energy intensity decreases by around 40%, but it cannot fully offset the increase in energy demand due to higher prosperity.
  • OECD economies have a small decrease in energy consumption over the Outlook (-0.3% p.a.), while developing economies show a relative solid growth of 1.6% p.a..
  • Natural gas grows consistently and becomes the second largest energy source after renewables.
  • Oil demand in 2040 decreases by 14 Mb/d. However, biofuels grow by 4 Mb/d.
  • Global coal consumption declines substantially (-71%). In OECD economies it becomes a marginal energy source (1% of total primary energy consumption).??
  • Solar and wind energy grow exponentially (around 14% and 10% p.a., respectively), ranking 3rd and 4th in terms of the largest primary energy sources.
  • The growth in power (2% p.a.) outpaces the growth in total energy consumption (0.8% p.a.), as a result of a strong electrification process.
  • Non-combusted is the sector with the strongest increase in demand (+48%) followed by buildings (+36%), transport (+17%) and industry (10%).
  • CO2 emissions from energy use decline by 46% by 2040. Among end-use sectors in 2040, transport and industry contribute around 40% of CO2 emissions, while buildings contribute just over 20%.
  • Carbon capture, usage and store (CCUS) plays a significant role in the decarbonization of the energy system. CCUS accounts for one-third of the reduction in CO2 emissions.
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